Space & Astronomy/Space and Astronomy (October 1993).iso/mac/TEXT/SPACEDIG/V13_3/V13_329.TXT

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Subject: SPACE Digest V13 #329

SPACE Digest                                     Volume 13 : Issue 329

Today's Topics:
           Commercial Space news (11 of 12)
         NASA Headline News for 03/27/91 (Forwarded)
             Re: Shuttle Velocity
        Thanks to Wales and others (email not working)
             Re: EM Launchers and G loads
           Commercial Space news (7 of 12)
           Commercial Space News (3 of 12)

Administrivia:

    Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to
  [e-mail].  Other mail, esp. [un]subscription requests,
  should be sent to [e-mail], or, if urgent, to
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Date: 26 Mar 91 05:30:01 GMT
From: sdd.hp.com!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!zardoz.cpd.com!dhw68k!ofa123![e-mail]  (Wales Larrison)
Subject: Commercial Space news (11 of 12)

CBO STUDY RELEASED ON PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN SPACE
   The Congressional Budget Office (one of the advisory and
analytical offices which support Congress) has released a report
entitled "Encouraging Private Investment in Space Activities".  The
objective of the report was to investigate whether more federal
support for space would spur private space investments, with the
ultimate goal to cut the costs of the governmental space program. .
   Of specific interest was their analysis of the commercial space
launch market.  The CBO projected the launch service market to
remain flat for the next several years with the launch of 15-20
satellites per year.  However, this demand was projected to fall to
12-17 satellites per year in the late 1990's.  The size of the
market was expected to range from $800 M/yr to $1.2 B/yr, depending
upon the year, and the mix of payloads to be launched.
   During this same period, CBO's analysis indicated the
international competition for space launches was going to increase
as the Ariane-5 enters the launch services market, with other
players entering from China, Japan, and the Soviet Union. CBO
said these tough market conditions could force at least one of the
major U.S. launch providers out of the market.  To keep U.S. launch
firms competitive would require fairly large investments in
facilities and new technologies - which the CBO estimate would
probably not be made without federal assistance because of the
market risk and uncertainty in payback to commercial investors.
   In the near term, the report estimated that the cost of
launching government payloads could be reduced by requiring all
unmanned government payloads to be launched through commercial
launch service agreements, which would increase the pressure on the
commercial firms to lower costs.
   Another option investigated was to create a national U.S. launch
company which would provide a national consortium of major U.S.
launch vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to internationally market
the U.S. fleet of launch vehicles.  This consortium would also act
as a vehicle to use federal funds to develop a new generation of
launch systems, their subsystems, and components.  However, the CBO
report also points out this approach, if chosen, could eliminate
some of the diversity from competing contractors, and might prove
"expensive and chaotic".
   [Commentary:  These market projections are pretty much in line
with mine and other's market projections (see other articles in this
set of postings).  The estimate of at least 1 major U.S. producer
possibly going out of the commercial side of the business within a
few years also matches my projections.  However, I would rank the
firms as Martin Marietta (almost out of the business now...),
McDonnell-Douglas (desperately seeking business for the Delta), and
then General Dynamics (holding on with current losses from
operations...).   Moving payloads to "commercial" launch service
contracts is already almost fully under way, so I don't see that
doing anything for the U.S. commercial launch industry to help it
since virtually of the dollars will go to the same companies in
either case (since they are going to be using Deltas, Titans, or
Atlases anyway).
   What we need to do is figure out a way to encourage private
investment, or failing that, to figure out a way to channel federal
development funds to the commercial industry.  One way of
encouraging private investment is for the government to provide a
more stable market - signing multi-year, multi-launch contracts with



--
Wales Larrison
Internet: [e-mail]
Compuserve: >internet:[e-mail]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Date: 27 Mar 91 20:06:00 GMT
From: [e-mail]  (Peter E. Yee)
Subject: NASA Headline News for 03/27/91 (Forwarded)


             Headline News
Internal Communications Branch (P-2) NASA Headquarters

  Wednesday, March 27, 1991    Audio Service: 202 / 755-1788

This is NASA Headline News for Wednesday, March 27, 1991

NASA management today selected April 5 as the target date for
launch of the Atlantis STS-37 Gamma Ray Observatory mission.
This will be the 39th space shuttle flight and is scheduled as a five-day
mission.  The launch window opens at 9:18 am on Friday April 5.

The flight readiness test on Atlantis' three main engines went well
yesterday.  All hydraulic servicing on the orbiter is now finished.
Activity on the pad today includes servicing of one auxiliary power unit
and pressurization of the liquid hydrogen tank inside the external
tank.  Installation of the space suits and ordnance devices, and final aft
closeout activities will take place Friday.  The Gamma Ray
Observatory is presently powered-down and configured for
launch.  Crew and flight control team members from Johnson Space
Center and Goddard Space Flight Center today are engaged in a joint
integrated simulation of the mission.

Yesterday, Discovery was soft-mated to its tank inside the Vehicle
Assembly Building.  Hard-mating will take place today and will be
followed by power-up activities in preparation for tomorrow's interface
verification test.  Rollout of Discovery to launch pad 39-A is still
set for Monday, April 1, beginning at 4:00 am.

Activity on Columbia, inside the Orbiter Processing Facility, is also
progressing smoothly.  The interface verification test between the
orbiter payload bay and the Spacelab Life Sciences habitable module
begins tonight, following the completion of electrical connections
between the module and the orbiter.  The pressurized tunnel assembly
will be installed between Columbia's airlock and the Spacelab module
tomorrow.

                   * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

NASA and Kennedy Space Center officials yesterday broke ground
for the new Space Station Processing Facility at Kennedy.
Weather was excellent for the ceremony and press turnout was
reported to be very good.

Space Station Freedom will highlight NASA's exhibit at the
39th Paris Air Show, Le Bourget, France, June l3 through 23.  The
centerpiece of the 7,000 sq. ft. exhibit will be a full scale mock-up of
a Space Station Freedom module.  Air Show visitors will enter a
module that represents combined habitat and laboratory facilities.
Other NASA programs featured at the exhibition will be Mission to
Planet Earth and aeronautics research.  The NASA exhibit also
will commemorate 30 years of manned U.S. space flight with a large
mural at the exhibit's entrance.  NASA has been a major participant in
the Paris show for over twenty years.


Here's the broadcast schedule for Public Affairs events on NASA Select
TV.  All times are Eastern.  NASA Select TV is carried on GE Satcom
F2R, transponder 13, C-Band, 72 degrees W Long., Audio 6.8,
Frequency 3960 MHz.

Wednesday 3/27/91
     8:00 am    STS-37 Joint Integrated Simulation of Mission Day 3
            activities, deployment of the Gamma Ray Observatory.
            Goddard Space Flight Center and Johnson Space Center
            flight control team members are participating.  The
            simulation will run 11 hours.  Coverage of the sim
            will be interrupted for the Magellan report and
            continue afterwards.

     1:15 pm    Magellan-at-Venus status report live from the Jet
            Propulsion Laboratory.

     1:30 pm    Continuation of coverage of STS-37 Joint Integrated
            Simulation, through 7:00 pm conclusion.


All events and times may change without notice.  This report is filed
daily, Monday through Friday, by 12:00 pm, Eastern.  It is a service of
NASA Headquarters Office of Public Affairs.  Contact:  CREDMOND
on NASAmail or at 202/453-8425.

------------------------------

Date: 28 Mar 91 03:32:40 GMT
From: sun-barr!olivea!samsung!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!rpi!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!utzoo![e-mail]  (Henry Spencer)
Subject: Re: Shuttle Velocity

In article <[e-mail]> I wrote:
>number is nevertheless wrong, because liftoff accelerations generally are
>lower than that...

Suspicions confirmed.  Shuttle takeoff thrust:weight ratio is about 1.5,
so initial acceleration is half a gee and velocity on clearing the tower
is in the vicinity of 30 m/s, i.e. circa 60 mph.
--
"We must choose:  the stars or the dust.| Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
Which shall it be?"       -H.G. Wells   |  [e-mail]  utzoo!henry

------------------------------

Date: 27 Mar 91 16:41:06 GMT
From: usc!sdd.hp.com!spool.mu.edu!news.nd.edu!mentor.cc.purdue.edu![e-mail]  (Mark Gellis)
Subject: Thanks to Wales and others (email not working)


I'm sorry to waste bandwidth on this, but some of the thank you messages
I sent to people answering various technical questions did not go through
due to local mailer daemons.  Anyway, thanks; I appreciate the help.

Mark

------------------------------

Date: 27 Mar 91 17:44:31 GMT
From: agate!bionet!uwm.edu!rpi!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!utgpu!utzoo![e-mail]  (Henry Spencer)
Subject: Re: EM Launchers and G loads

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] ("Wm. L. Ranck") writes:
>   Now, my question is this.  Why does everyone assume that you want
>maximum acceleration from the system in the shortest possible distance.

Basically, because accelerating something to orbital or near-orbital
velocity takes *tremendous* distances at low accelerations.  Distance
and acceleration are inversely proportional to each other, and it turns
out that orbital velocity equals about 3300 G-km.  So at 3G, your
catapult needs to be a mere 1100km long.  This is a *formidable* civil
engineering project.  (High-tech structures one or two kilometers long
are truly major projects.)  There is also a small problem with finding
a place to put it; a thousand kilometers of right-of-way in a straight
line with no bends or dips allowed is hard to come by.

>something running along the desert and then gradually curved up the side
>of a mountain...

Building that last curve will be a civil engineering project to end all
civil engineering projects -- a large mass moving at 7-8 km/s tries
very hard to keep on moving in a straight line.  Assume a bend radius
of 10km, which is pretty generous, and the side force at 7km/s is a
mere 500G.  Wasn't this supposed to be a low-acceleration device... :-)

What you want, actually, is to build a rather shorter catapult along
a long, high mountain ridge sloping up to the east.  Then you can make it
straight and still shoot into relatively thin air.  You don't actually
need the upward angle -- the Earth's curvature will take it out from
under your payload quickly enough -- but getting out of the atmosphere
is important.
--
"[Some people] positively *wish* to     | Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
believe ill of the modern world."-R.Peto|  [e-mail]  utzoo!henry

------------------------------

Date: 26 Mar 91 05:25:37 GMT
From: sdd.hp.com!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!zardoz.cpd.com!dhw68k!ofa123![e-mail]  (Wales Larrison)
Subject: Commercial Space news (7 of 12)

ARIANESPACE FORECASTS SLOWING SATELLITE LAUNCH MARKET IN LATE '90s
   Arianespace has recently released the results of their most
recent market survey.  From their assessment, the number of
commercial satellites to be launched worldwide will peak at 26 this
year, and then gradually decline, bottoming out in 1998 at about 15
satellites per year, according to Arianespace.  This slump in the
annual market demand is attributed by Arianespace the end of the
current U.S programs to replace existing GEO satellite networks,
mostly launched in the mid-1980's, with new, improved satellites,
and the consolidation of existing satellite networks under a fewer
operators.   Outside of the U.S., the number of satellites launched
annually is also expected to drop due to the completion of European
satellite networks, and a consolidation in the European space
industry which is reducing the number of satellite system operators.
Arianespace estimates there are now 32 satellite operators worldwide
- consisting of  7 U.S. government or private organizations (down
from 12 of so a few years ago), 10 European, and 12 elsewhere.
   While the number of satellites to be launched is declining,
Arianespace does not expect the total mass into orbit to decrease.
This is based upon a projection the average size of the satellite to
be launched is increasing, to over 2000 Kg into GEO.  By the mid
1990's they project 45% of the satellite market will be satellites
weighing between 2,000 and 3,000 Kg, with only 20% of the satellites
in the 1,400-2000Kg size.  (In comparison they noted that 2/3 of the
satellites in the 1980's were 1400 Kg or less).   They expect to
launch almost 60,000 Kg per year by 2000, in comparison to the
40,000 pounds being launched this year.
   Similarly, Arianespace does not expect the activities in the
satellite market to decrease.  While the number of launches per
year might decrease, the number of satellites on orbit will
increase, due to longer lifetimes ot today's satellites.  Current
generation satellites are expected to last 10-12 years in GEO and
carry about 60,000 equivalent telephone circuits.  In the next
generation these satellite are projected to have about 100,000
equivalent circuits and an orbital life of about 16 years.
   [Commentary:  This market projection by Arianespace seems to fit
with other market surveys I have seen, as well as with my rough
estimates from a year or so ago - I had actually projected a higher
dropoff in the late 1990's, but I had not included several of the
new networks now being talked about.  A couple of interesting points
can be drawn from this - the new Ariane-5 is being designed to carry
up to 3 of the larger communications satellites on one launch.  If
the number of satellites are decreasing, and the capability of the
launch vehicles are increasing - will the number of launches needed
by Ariane decline? This would remove some of the flights needed to
support the "commercial viability" of the Ariane.
   Similarly, as the number of satellite launches is decreasing, the
competition for this launch market will intensify - and it is my
opinion that there will be a reduction in the number of firms who
can capture enough business to stay profitable.  As the number of
launches drops, it reduces the amount of money firms are willing to
invest, and pumps up the level of competition for launch contracts
on the larger satellite constellations (Inmarsat, Intelsat, GPS,
etc.) which offer some longer term business.   Also, the competition
for the satellite manufacturing market will intensify as the number
of "build" contracts decreases annually.  Each satellite will be
larger and cost more, but there will be fewer built, such that I
would not expect the size of the market to decrease, but the
importance of winning a contract with an individual customer (who's



--
Wales Larrison
Internet: [e-mail]
Compuserve: >internet:[e-mail]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------

Date: 26 Mar 91 05:21:26 GMT
From: swrinde!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!zardoz.cpd.com!dhw68k!ofa123![e-mail]  (Wales Larrison)
Subject: Commercial Space News (3 of 12)

GEOSTAR SECURES FINANCING TO STAY IN BUSINESS
  Geostar corp, which had filed for bankruptcy on 27 February, has
managed to secure financing to keep the firm operating for some
time.  Geostar's two-way messaging and positioning services had seen
some setbacks, and the firm had taken a 30% cut in personnel (from
70 to 50) at the end of last year.  However, as announced by
Geostar, 3 to 5 high-tech firms have committed to cover Geostar's
operating costs while they negotiate for permanent ownership of the
company - expected to take place in the next 30 days or so.  Geostar
is currently in Chapter 11 of the U.S. Federal Bankruptcy Act, since
it has about $77 M in assets, with about $80 M in debts.
  [It looks like Geostar will remain as an operational entity for
the near term - although this looks like there will be a drastic
reorganization of the firm and substantially revamping of their
business.  Geostar has gotten whipsawed by several factors - not the
least being the availability of simple and cheap GPS receivers due
to the accelerated and more precise signals being transmitted for
use by U.S. forces in Operation Desert Storm.  Their primary market,
large U.S. trucking firms, cut back their purchases dramatically in
the current recession and as rising fuel prices have reduced their
available funds, while competing systems using GPS or Loran or even
cellular radio technology increased their penetration of the market.
   I've heard a couple of speculations on who the "high-tech" firms
are that might buy into Geostar.  Probably the most interesting
speculation is that Sony, who manufactures Geostar receivers, might
be interested in getting more control of this market.  Similarly,
Geostar has licensed their technology to Locstar in Europe, and that
Matra or Loral, both of which have major interests in European
communications and navigation systems might be interested in buying
into Geostar.  Geostar had committed to buy 7 percent of Locstar for
about 55 M francs ($11 M), and had purchased about $3-4M of the
stock before going into chapter 11.  From this perspective, a
European firm might be interested in an equity position with
Locstar, particularly if it gave them leverage for the eventual sale
of comm/nav systems to users in Europe.  We'll have to see who is
biting at this .... ]

OSC WINS AIR FORCE EXPERIMENT CONTRACT
  It was announced by Orbital Sciences Corp that they have been
selected to design and product the Advanced Photovoltaic and
Electronics Experiments (APEX) test bed for the Air Force,  This
would be a $9.6 M contract to design and built a test bed satellite
for in-space experiments with advanced solar arrays.  The
experiments would test the efficiency and life characteristics of
the advanced solar arrays, as well as measure the effects of cosmic
ray radiation caused single event upsets (SEUs) on microelectronics
and measure the impact of long-term exposure to space radiation on
ferroelectric devices.
   [Commentary: chalk up another win for OSC.  This is a good
contract for them that they demonstrate they can build and launch a
small experimental satellite for less than $10 million and 24
months.  Nothing strange or really unusual about this contract -
except that these small, space test contracts have been awfully
sparse the last few years.]



--
Wales Larrison
Internet: [e-mail]
Compuserve: >internet:[e-mail]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

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End of SPACE Digest V13 #329
*******************